اكتشف
ورش عمل للعمليات، تدقيق البيانات، وفجوة ملاءمة مع المنتج القياسي.
المرحلة الأولى · الوعي
Strategic AI, data and analytics
Decision intelligence over static reporting: forecasting cash, inventory and churn
How finance and operations move from looking back at last month to forecasting cash flow, stock and customer churn from the same operational data.
The short answer
A report tells you what happened. A decision model tells you what to do next and how sure it is. Start with one decision, such as how much cash you will have in thirteen weeks, and build backwards from it.
Stages
From report to decision
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1
Name the decision Write down the decision, who makes it and how often: reorder, collect, hire, discount.
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2
Find the drivers List the data that moves it: open invoices, payment history, lead times, demand.
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3
Build the forecast Start with a simple, explainable model on the governed data. Add sophistication only if it beats the simple one.
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4
Put it in the workflow Show the forecast where the decision is made, with the reasons beside it.
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5
Close the loop Compare forecast with result every period and retrain or retire the model.
Decision points
Three questions that change the answer
Is the decision made often enough to justify a model?
YesBuild it.
NoKeep a report and a conversation.
Can the user see why the model says this?
YesRelease it to users.
NoSimplify it until they can.
Does it beat the simple baseline?
YesKeep it.
NoUse the baseline.
Milestones
What done looks like, and when
- Month 1 Decision and baseline measured.
- Month 2 First forecast on governed data.
- Month 3 Forecast embedded in the workflow.
- Quarterly Forecast accuracy reviewed.
Principles we hold to
- Begin with the decision, not the dashboard.
- Explainable beats clever.
- Always compare with a simple baseline.
- Retire models that stop earning their place.
الأسئلة الشائعة
What is decision intelligence?
Using data and models to improve a specific, repeated business decision, with the reasons shown to the person making it, instead of only reporting history.
Can Dynamics 365 forecast cash flow?
Yes. Cash forecasting, inventory forecasting and customer analytics can be built on Dynamics 365 data with the Microsoft data and AI stack. Accuracy depends on your history and data quality.
Take this to your own programme.
Tell us where you are. We will tell you plainly what this means for your estate and what we would do first.
احجز استشارة
Next: Retail and FMCG: a Dynamics 365 blueprint for POS, fiscal compliance and branch networks →
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يبدأ باستشارة مدتها 45 دقيقة، ثم ورشة اكتشاف وورشة عمل حول عملياتك الخاصة. تحصل على فجوة ملاءمة مكتوبة وخطة مرحلية قبل الاتفاق على البرنامج. تتبع أربع مراحل، كل منها يحتوي على شيء يمكنك استخدامه ومراجعته.
التصميم
مخطط الحل، خريطة التكامل، والإضافات التي سنحتاجها فعليا.
النشر
التكوين، تدريب الهجرة، التدريب القائم على الأدوار، التدريبات غير المدرجة، والانتقال التدريجي.
الدعم
هايبركير، الخدمات المدارة، بوابة العملاء، مراجعات التحسين المجدولة.
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